Question: QUESTION 2: Decision Analysis 125 marks] sa Stanley runs must place an order for ski parkas (jack…

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Jun 13, 2022

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Question: QUESTION 2: Decision Analysis 125 marks] sa Stanley runs must place an order for ski parkas (jack…

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QUESTION 2: Decision Analysis 125 marks] sa Stanley runs must place an order for ski parkas (jackets) well in advance of the ski season because the a speciality ski clothing shop in Ohakune in the Central North Island. She in the summer months. Lisa needs to determine whether to place Li manufacturer produces them i a large, medium or small order for parkas. The number sold will depend largely on whether the area receives a heavy, normal or light amount of snow during the ski season. The following table summarises the payoffs (profits) Lisa expects to receive under each scenario. Payoffs in $1000s Amount of Snow Size of Order Large Medium Small Heavy Normal Light 10 Probability 0.25 0.6 0.15 (a) Describe the nature of the decision frame that Lisa has created, and indicate what has been highlighted, emphasised, downplayed or left out completely (4 marks) (b) Discuss four decision criteria that Lisa might use to evaluate the options in the frame that has been developed. In your discussion, indicate how each decision criterion may reflect or capture different aspects of a decision makers personality- for example, his/her risk aversion, cautiousness, conservatism or optimism. (6 marks) (c) Lisas business analysis department quantified the likelihood/probability of any particular winter (snow fall!) scenario arising, and probabilities are shown in the bottom row of the table Show Lisa how to undertake her analysis, using the criteria mentioned in (b), if she chose to ignore the probability estimates as being pure guesswork. (6 marks) (i) (ii) Then, show Lisa how to undertake the analysis taking account of the likelihoods of demand that she has been able to quantify. What are your conclusions and recommendation to Lisa? (4 marks) (d) Finally, show how Lisas problem could be framed as a decision tree. Indicate the strengths and weakness of the tree frame in comparison with the table frame. (5 marks)

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QUESTION 2: Decision Analysis 125 marks] sa Stanley runs must place an order for ski parkas (jackets) well in advance of the ski season because the a speciality ski clothing shop in Ohakune in the Central North Island. She in the summer months. Lisa needs to determine whether to place Li manufacturer produces them i a large, medium or small order for parkas. The number sold will depend largely on whether the area receives a heavy, normal or light amount of snow during the ski season. The following table summarises the payoff's (profits) Lisa expects to receive under each scenario. Payoffs in $1000s Amount of Snow Size of Order Large Medium Small Heavy Normal Light 10 Probability 0.25 0.6 0.15 (a) Describe the nature of the decision frame that Lisa has created, and indicate what has been highlighted, emphasised, downplayed or left out completely (4 marks) (b) Discuss four decision criteria that Lisa might use to evaluate the options in the frame that has been developed. In your discussion, indicate how each decision criterion may reflect or capture different aspects of a decision maker's personality- for example, his/her risk aversion, cautiousness, conservatism or optimism. (6 marks) (c) Lisa's business analysis department quantified the likelihood/probability of any particular winter (snow fall!) scenario arising, and probabilities are shown in the bottom row of the table Show Lisa how to undertake her analysis, using the criteria mentioned in (b), if she chose to ignore the probability estimates as being pure guesswork. (6 marks) (i) (ii) Then, show Lisa how to undertake the analysis taking account of the likelihoods of demand that she has been able to quantify. What are your conclusions and recommendation to Lisa? (4 marks) (d) Finally, show how Lisa's problem could be framed as a decision tree. Indicate the strengths and weakness of the tree frame in comparison with the table frame. (5 marks)

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